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India v West Indies
Wednesday 9 February 08.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
India spin to win
India’s victory in game one was about as routine as it gets in world cricket. A touring team were undone on an alien surface by a spinning masterclass.
This time it was Ahmedabad, which has taken tweak in the past (and some) and Yuz Chahal. Chahal copped at 11/1 for man of the match, a bet recommended by the Cricket…Only Bettor crew.
Chahal claimed four wickets from third change as India routed the Windies for 176. Washington Sundar also claimed three wickets. If India really want to learn absolutely nothing, they could pick a third spinner in Kuldeep Yadav. Possibly for Shardul Thakur.
They will justify it by arguing they are hampered by a raft of Covid cases which gives this XI a makeshift feel.
Probable XI: Rohit, Kishan, Kohli, Pant, Yadav, Hooda, Sundar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Siraj, Krishna.
West Indies struggling
West Indies’ weakness against spin was identified in their 3-2 series success over England. It escaped no-one apart from Moeen Ali, who criminally under-bowled his tweakers. That was probably the series.
In the short gap after the first match, it is highly unlikely the tourists have come up with a plan to counter the problem.
This is a shame as the 2019 series between the two was a cracker with favouritism flipping back and forth over three matches. There is a real fear this could be another mismatch.
There was little wrong with the balance of the West Indies team. It was just a lack of skill against an unfamiliar foe.
Possible XI: Hope, King, Bravo, Brooks, Pooran, Pollard, Holder, Allen, Hosein, Joseph, Roach
We had two different surfaces in the first match. A track which befuddled West Indies. And one which India were able to turn on the boosters. We note the run rate of 6.35 by India in the ‘chase’. That gives weight to the pre-series view that this West Indies attack could be fodder. The tourists’ runs par line was 261.5. That gives us hope that we might be able to get long of India’s runs at around 310.5.
Sixes bet stands out
At 1.211/5 India are expected to dominate. West Indies are as big as 5.509/2. Sure that’s a price you could hang a trade on. But there are too many ifs, buts and maybe with this West Indies line-up. It’s a fretful bet.
One which is not is taking India to hit most sixes at 7/5 with Sportsbook. West Indies have muscles and they flex it in desperation – see Jason Holder’s four which gave them the ‘win’ in this market.
Over longer study periods, though, India have a more powerful mindset. They average 5.6 sixes per game in the last two years to West Indies’ 4.9. At home in the last three years India average 6.2 and on the road West Indies’ mark is 5.6. Bet on the market here
We retain faith in Shai Hope to be top West Indies bat, particularly after he has been lengthened to 4/1.
Hope wins 27.9% of the time giving us a whopping edge at 20% implied probability and has an excellent record in India.
Other prices of note are Rohit Sharma at 7/1 for man of the match, Kuldeep at 14s and Sundar at 20s. There is decent value in Romario Shepherd, Fabian Allen and Odean Smith for top West Indies bat from 20/1 if Hope is not for you. It’s possible 30 or 40 could win it. Bet on the markets here