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Prospects of a result after day three in Bridgetown are similar to the chances of slurping, sweating and swearing Barmy Army general making any sense.
England, as discussed in our preview, won’t be making much sense either after banging their heads against the flat, hard Kensington Oval surface for 117 overs. As predicted the draw is now solid odds-on and it is likely to get shorter.
The stalemate is 1.384/11 with England 4.2016/5 and West Indies 21.020/1. The home team could also shorten up with more easy runs. Not by much but enough for a basic trade into something like 17.016/1. Bet the match odds here.
Kraigg Brathwaite (109), the unflappabe Windies skipper, remains and Alzarri Joseph was sent in to protect Jason Holder. It is tempting to think that England are one wicket from a breakthrough until you remember that in 2019 Holder made a double against England to set up a thrashing.
Brathwaite’s century was not unexpected. Nor was Jermaine Blackwood’s. The pair have been a right old double-act of reliability in recent years. And Blackwood has had a habit of frustrating England.
In some ways, though, their 183-run partnership was a surprise. That was because early on there were signs that the pitch had changed in nature. There were dents being made and chunks flying off. Jack Leach got balls to turn and spit.
And when England managed two relatively quick wickets to leave West Indies at 100 for three, it wouldn’t have been entirely surprising to see the hosts struggle.
But this is not a vintage England attack. And one cannot help but wonder how better they would have fared had James Anderson and Stuart Broad been picked. It is hard to reckon they would have not fared slightly better.
Quite where that decision leaves England long-term is guess work. Rationally, it should be the end for the pair, premature or not. What would precisely be the point of hampering chances of a series win on the road only to bring them back for the summer?
Still, England don’t do rational. To the extent that fingers may not go in ears when the inevitable murmurings of discontent about Jack Leach’s performance in this Test begin.
If Leach is to silence the doubters he needs a big performance on day four. To be clear if you’re taking the 4.2016/5 about the tourists that’s what you’re betting on. That Leach can take a cluster to secure a big lead and flip the odds again.
Sportsbook pitch Brathwaite runs over/under at 143.5 at 10/11. https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/west-indies-v-england/31299345. On the exchange runs are available at 475 or more with 2.206/5 to back and 2.506/4 to lay. If we do see some bits and pieces come off the track after the roller work has worn off, we might consider the lay. Bet innings runs herehere.
Woakes no joke
England should bat again on day four. That means we have to consider the value for top runscorer.
On win rates, Zak Crawley could well be value with Sportsbook, who could pitch him at a potential 7/2.
However, if Leach suddenly finds turn again and those chunk of soil start flying from the seamers, another gamble on Chris Woakes at big numbers is not the worst bet.
Woakes has been poor with the ball, not that his record away from suggested he would be anything but. He has looked good with the willow, though, and has been consistently chipping in with scores. Bet Sportsbook markets herehere.
Second innings top bat wins/matches