50/1 Faheem a big price for a big score

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Quetta Gladiators v Islamabad United
Thursday 3 February 14.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Quetta wait for Roy and Vince

This game could come too soon for quarantining England pair Jason Roy and James Vince. Not that when they are available Quetta suddenly look more powerful. There has been nothing wrong with their opening pair of Ahsan Ali and Will Smeed.

It’s with the ball where they look vulnerable. Naseem Shah, Mohammad Nawaz and Iftikhar were eye-wateringly expensive in defeat by Multan last time. If one of them keeps it tight they probably get up with the toss bias in their favour.

They bowled well against a Karachi Kings team who look off the pace but Zalmi got hold of them. They have to put a performance together sharpish.

Probable XI: Ahsan, Smeed, Duckett, Sarfaraz, Qureshi, Iftikar, Nawaz, Faulkner, Tanvir, Naseem, Hasnain.

United need balance

Islamabad failed to make use of the toss bias in their blockbuster against Multan Sultans. They will be ruing their performance in the field.

As good as Sultans are, there is no real excuse for allowing them to post a massive 217. They used only five bowlers, a potential weakness we highlighted previously.

It left them with far too much to do despite having the benefit of the chase. They gave a good account of themselves with Shadab Khan almost orchestrating a famous win.

With Hasan Ali such a useful late hitter they can afford to dispense with Mubasir at No 8 and bring in spinner Zafar Gohar.

Possible XI: Hales, Stirling, Gurbaz, Shadab, Azam Khan, Asif Ali, Faheem, Hasan, Gohar, Wasim Jnr, De Lange.

Pitch report

Before Zalmi-Lahore, more than 170 has been posted in 14 of the last 24 at Karachi’s National Stadium and in 14 of those both teams scored 160 or more. The massive toss bias has held so far with six out of eight won by the chaser. In the last 33 PSL games at Karachi, 26 have been won by the chaser.

There’s nothing wrong with betting both teams to score more than 160 at 10/11. If bigger prices float your boat how about 2/1 for 170 or more, 3/1 for 180 and 5/1 for 190? Bet on these markets here

Options for United

Quetta are probably the one team we wouldn’t trust even with the toss bias in their favour. So we’ve got plenty of options whatever the flip throws up.

If United bat first, we can expect a pre-toss price of 1.728/11 to drift to
1.9010/11. And that’s fine because they should be more than capable of a score of 180 or so. We will keep an eye out for prices of 3.505/2 on the exchange.
However, if Quetta bat first we have the option of waiting for a flat wicket to do its work and taking something similar in-play. Possibly even odds-against. United chase up to 200 we reckon.

Tops value

Pre-series Hasan Ali had a two-year return rate of 42% on top bowler. He has added two ties this term. So we are enamoured with the 3/1 that he wins this market. Naseem Shah has a return rate of 50% in a much shorter study period and is the right jolly at 5/2 for Quetta.

With the bat, we note Asif Ali at 16s for United. He really should bat at No 6 but there is no guarantee. The excellent Faheem Ashraf was promoted to No 5 last time so 50/1 is too big. He probably won’t bat there again but it’s worth chancing. For United, Alex Hales has been boosted to 3/1 and he makes the top three batters for most wins in the PSL in the last two years. Bet on these markets here

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