Month: April 2022

170 at the Wankhede is no big ask for these sides

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Delhi Capitals v Lucknow Super Giants
Sunday, 11:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Big game here, between two very plausible champions. Lucknow’s first season goes from strength to strength. Victory over Punjab took them into a tie for second, going into the weekend. Top-three finishers in the last two years, Delhi’s critical win over KKR on Thursday put them right back in the play-off hunt.

Delhi’s best line-up still unclear

Capitals have an abundance of riches at their disposal. In fact arguably their biggest problem is being unable to accommodate their overseas talent and build a stable batting order. David Warner and Prithvi Shaw are fixed as the openers, and both enjoying decent seasons. But Rishabh Pant aside, the rest of the top order is unsettled.

Mitchell Marsh has come in after returning from injury but is yet to make an impact. That has been the case for many Big Bash stars in IPL and I wonder whether he’ll retain a spot. Tim Seifert is a batting alternative and either player’s selection means excluding top-class bowlers. Personally, I would utilise Anrich Nortje and Lungi Ngidi as much as possible (only one appearance between them so far).

Kuldeep back to his very best

Nevertheless, the bowling unit is thriving without them. Kuldeep Yadav and Khaleel Ahmed have 28 wickets from 14 appearances. Chetan Sakiraya – a young Indian paceman who made a big impact last season – came in for his first match on Thursday and went for just 5.66 per over.

I put up Lucknow at 7.0 to win the title on the latest episode of Cricket…Only Bettor and they’ve since won again. As argued there, my ideal T20 line-up is one which bats very deep and can attack throughout. One balanced by all-rounders. This squad ticks all the boxes and a weakness isn’t obvious.

In K.L. Rahul and Quinton de Kock, LSG both one of the strongest opening pairs in every form of cricket. 615 runs between them so far and surely much more to come.

If either fail, the back-up is considerable. In addition to solid batters in Deepak Hooda, Manish Pandey and Ayush Badoni, they have a trio of all-rounders in Marcus Stoinis, Krunal Pandya and Jason Holder. That means finishing power down to at least eight. Four of their bowlers have an economy below 7.0.

No advantage to chasers today

There is very little to choose between these two sides, so its no surprise to see them both trading around even money. Moreover, there is no clear advantage to either the team batting first or second. Chasers lead 6-5 this season and 11-10 over the past two. However this is an early match so there won’t be any dew and batting first is probably a better plan.

Regarding runs, I must reiterate the points laid out in my previous article regarding the timing of entering the 1st Innings Runs market. Wait for the Strategic Timeout around the nine over mark, and then back overs.

Always back late runs at the Wankhede

In that piece, I noted an average of around 11.5 per over for this latter stage. In the next match, the STO was earlier, after seven overs. From there, Sunrisers hit 137 off 13, so over 10.5 per over. In the chase, Gujurat managed 132 off the last 13. In the next match, KKR hit 100 off the last 11 from 46-4. Not such an extreme, but still above the par line at that stage of the innings.

This is definitely a superior plan to betting pre-innings. As the difference of 50 between those last two first innings implies, it isn’t easy to predict par at this ground. There have been plenty of low scores, due to early wickets, but 200+ is perfectly realistic on a good strip, given the small boundaries.

No shortage of power on either side

One runs bet that does appeal is Both Teams to Score 170, at an enhanced 2/1. This landed in four of the last six Wankhede matches and nine of the last 21. Plus as explained above, both sides bat very deep and are well equipped for the ground, with powerful finishers.

As usual, there are two #OddsBoosts available on opening batsmen. David Warner to 7/2 for Delhi and K.L. Rahul to 11/4 for Lucknow. Both represent solid value at those odds, which would have yielded a long-term profit if backing for consistent stakes.

Finally, speaking of ‘wrong odds’, Kuldeep Yadav has already won four Man of the Match awards in eight appearances, yet is an enormous 16/1 to do so again.

Of course runs like this can only continue so long but the odds are too big to ignore. Likewise, Krunal Pandya won this award in Lucknow’s last match and is 14/1 to repeat. In both cases, it makes good sense to back spinners at this time of the season and Pandya could well contribute with the bat.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians

Saturday 30 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Royals keep on winning

We’d been wondering what would happen when Jos Buttler eventually got out cheaply.

Well, what happened against RCB was that even though no-one else in the top order got many runs, Riyan Parag, very quiet so far this tournament, played a little gem of an innings to keep them in the game.

And if Parag was the man with the bat, Ravi Ashwin and Kuldeep Sen were the ones who bowled them to victory, sharing seven wickets between them and not going for many runs.

Ashwin, by the way, was promoted to number three and his quickfire 17 off nine was pretty useful in the context of the game so we’ll have to wait and see if they go with that strategy again.

The Royals are looking pretty good as they close in on a Top 2 finish but seem unsure about their fourth overseas player.

None of Rassie van der Dussen, Daryl Mitchell (who made his debut in that game) or Obed McCoy have done enough to seal that spot. Mitchell will probably get another go here.

Royals’ Likely XI

Buttler, Padikkal, Ashwin, Samson, Hetmyer, Mitchell, Parag, Boult, Krishna, Sen, Chahal.

Why have Mumbai been so bad?

We could be here all day discussing how the five-time Champions Mumbai have found themselves in this position.

But in a nutshell: in the auction they took big gambles on English duo Tymal Mills and Jofra Archer that so far haven’t paid off, big money man Ishan Kishan has been out of form and none of the other players you’d expect to stand up has really done so.

Not skipper Rohit Sharma, not finisher Kieron Pollard, not English tyro Mills.

Experienced duo Sky Yadav and Jasprit Bumrah have admittedly been their usual consistent selves while youngsters Dewald Brevis and HR Shokeen have impressed with bat and ball respectively and are certainly two for the future.

As is Tilak Varma, the all-rounder, and their top runscorer so far this season.

But those are three of the very few positives to take away from the season because it really has been a disaster. Last time out they let KL Rahul get a century, his second in two matches against them.

That tells its own story.

Mumbai’s Likely XI

Sharma, Kishan, Brevis, Sky Yadav, Varma, Pollard, Sams, Unadkat, Shokeen, Bumrah, Meredith.

Pitch report

We’re at the DY Patil Stadium for this one.

Gujarat’s 156 proved too many for KKR last weekend and before that CSK chased 156 against Mumbai with MS Dhoni finding a boundary off the last ball of the game to win the match.

And before that, Punjab managed just 151, easily chased by SRH.

So, it’s the lowest-scoring of the grounds we’ve had so far and anything above 165 is going to be very competitive.

Kieron Pollard - 1280.jpg

Skippers winning the toss carry on being obsessed by the dew factor and generally want to chase but it’s not a bad toss to lose at this ground.

Royals a surprisingly big price

The Royals are 1.910/11 to win this match.

Now, let’s just forget for a second what Mumbai have done in the past by winning all those titles and just judge them on their 2022 performance.

No wins in eight, their batsmen have just six fifties between them, the fielding has been sloppy, most of the bowlers have been expensive and they have absolutely nothing to play for except pride.

Even the normally ultra-competitive Pollard looked thoroughly fed up last match as they botched yet another chase with Pollard himself struggling to find the middle of the bat.

And they’re up against a side who is six from eight and as we saw last time, is finding different ways to win games. They’re not perfect and sooner or later they’ll need better efforts from their middle-order but they’re a hell of a lot better than this Mumbai lot in just about every department.

Their motivation levels will also be much higher as they aim to stay towards the top of the table and that could make a big difference. A saved run here, a hard-run two instead of a single, that sort of thing.

There’s another element here. Despite Mumbai’s huge success and Rajasthan’s struggles over the years, the Royals have a surprisingly good record against the Indians, being ‘just’ 13-12 down.

Rohit Sharma Mumbai.jpg

So you’d think that if they can hold their own with far weaker sides than this one over the years, they should win this one when they’re so strong this time round and Mumbai aren’t.

I’d have priced the Royals up at about 1.75/7 so with no obvious toss bias, I think 1.910/11 is a really big price.

Varma the value

Tilak Varma really has been one of the few bright spots for Mumbai this campaign. He’s 15/2 to top score for them here.

He’s Mumbai’s top-scorer with 272 runs, has an extremely healthy average of 45, and an excellent strike rate of 140.

Interestingly, he top-scored for Mumbai with 61 when they played each other at the start of April, so that’s a good omen. He also top-scored for them with 51 not out against CSK and fell just one run short of doing so again against Lucknow last Sunday, getting out on 38 after Rohit Sharma had scored 39.

So that’s two wins from eight, one instance of falling one run short and a couple of other near-misses.

In a side where just about everyone else is struggling, that’s a very decent price.

Dan, the man

Bumrah is 2/1 favourite to be Mumbai top bowler. No surprises there. He’s just about the best fast bowler in the world in this format.

The thing with someone like Bumrah (or Rashid Khan or Mohammed Shami for that matter) is that eventually batsmen actually stop trying to be aggressive against them. Less aggression means less wickets. That helps explain why his economy rate is a really good 7.54 but he’s only taken five wickets in eight games.

Sydney Thunder bowler Daniel Sams.jpg

And at more than twice the price you can back a man whose stats for the season are actually better.

Sams has taken six wickets in just five matches and has often been bowling at the key times for taking wickets: at the start and at the death.

At 9/2 he’s worth chancing.

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Ben Stokes has succeeded Joe Root as the England Test cricket captain so get the latest odds on this summer’s Test series against New Zealand, next year’s Ashes and more…

England are around even money to win their first Test under new captain Ben Stokes against New Zealand next month.

The all-rounder takes over from Joe Root with England in dire form. They have won only one of their last 17 Tests, so it is to be hoped Stokes’ appointment can trigger an upturn in fortunes.

England begin their three Test series against the Black Caps at Lord’s on 2 June. They are 11/10 to win with the Draw 5/1 and New Zealand 5/4.

Stokes has been an inspirational figure for England in recent years, most famously in the summer of 2019, when he played important innings in their ODI World Cup-winning campaign and scored an extraordinary century to bring them a Test victory from an unlikely position against Australia at Headingley.

He captained England against West Indies when Root was absent in 2020. England lost that Test but won all three of the ODIs against Pakistan when Stokes stepped in for Eoin Morgan as captain in 2021.

The 30-year-old is under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead of him as he tries to rebuild England’s battered Test reputation.

The longer term target will be next summer’s Ashes.

England are 12/5 to win. Australia, who beat England 4-0 in the 2021/22 series Down Under, are 8/13 to retain the urn when they visit these shores.

Back openers in tight match to call

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Delhi Capitals v Kolkata Knight Riders
Thursday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

For what is a huge game for both teams, the betting is virtually tied. Both Delhi and Kolkata have just six points so far, with the former playing one less game. By my reckoning, the target for a play-off place is 18 points. Defeat for the latter will likely be terminal and Delhi have little room for error.

Delhi may prove better than current placing

In terms of balance, Delhi look superior on paper. David Warner is in incomparably better form than last year and, alongside Prithvi Shaw, forms an opening partnership that can boss teams. Rishabh Pant is obviously another huge asset in the top order, but their greater strength lies among the bowlers.

One has to think, as the tournament progresses and pitches get slower, this attack will be hard to get away. Kuldeep Yadav is better than ever and Axar Patel ensures at least two international class spin options. Mustafizur Rahman and Khaleel Ahmed are highly adept on such slower surfaces. Anrich Nortje, when picked, offers a world-class pace threat.

So why the struggle? Well, to be fair, Delhi’s last two defeats were nothing to be ashamed off. Hitting 207 chasing an impossible 223 versus the tournament favourites, Rajasthan. They lost 189/173 to the previous favourites, RCB. There is definitely scope for improvement during the second half of the season.

KKR can afford no more mistakes

If that 18 point estimate is correct, KKR would need to win all six of their remaining group matches. Coming off four straight losses, such a run feels like a pipe dream. The only caveat is that, when the IPL was postponed midway through last season due to Covid, KKR were in a similarly impossible position, yet ended up reaching the final.

Those runs illustrate the team’s basic nature. Incredibly talented but erratic. Given their batting depth, no team is arguably better equipped to register huge totals, but they don’t know their right order.

Last year, Eoin Morgan was still captain. Replacement Shreyas Iyer is contributing much more with the bat, but he hasn’t settled upon anything like a consistent batting order. Sam Billings opened last time, with their one-time specialist opener Venkatesh Iyer down at six. In theory they could pick a supremely balanced line-up, but it hasn’t materialised yet.

Always back late runs at the Wankhede

The venue is the Wankhede Stadium. We discussed this at length in the latest Cricket…Only Bettor with reference to the first innings runs trends and why, rather than predicting the total and betting pre-match, it makes much better sense to wait for the Strategic Time Out after nine overs before any ‘Overs’ bet.

In the last four matches here, those last 11 overs have gone for 124, 118, 144 and 119. That’s an average of around 11.5 per over. Normally at that stage, 10.0 per over is odds-against so big-priced runs bands are being smashed in every game.

Simply, the boundaries are short here and offer little protection against sloggers. 12 of the last 19 matches here yielded 15 or more. In fairness, that is reflected by a higher than usual Total Sixes line of 17.5.

Defenders ahead of late but no real toss bias

No toss bias is discernible of late. The last five matches went to the team batting first, but the previous four went to the chasing team. Over the past two years, defenders lead 10-9.

There’s less disincentive, therefore, regarding pre-toss bets. With a gun to my head, I’d pick Delhi but in truth, this even betting looks more or less right. Ignore that and focus on the side markets.

Openers Warner and Billings appeal

First, Top Team Runscorer. Today’s #OddsBoost players are David Warner (enhanced to 7/2 for Delhi) and Shreyas Iyer, (enhanced to 3/1 for KKR).

The former is, for a change, nicely priced. KKR have been very unreliable with bat and Delhi may very well end up chasing a low total. If so, that offers a big advantage to openers. Irrespective of that, an opener averaging 55 during the tournament should be shorter odds, perhaps a full point.

Given that he opened last time, 6/1 about Sam Billings appeals. True, he may very well be shunted down to the middle order again but, even in that scenario, these odds would be roughly correct.

Finally given how well he’s bowling – 13 wickets at 17.38 average, and the fact most pitches are by now used, Kuldeep Yadav appeals at 14/1 to be Man of the Match. So too Tim Southee, who has made an instant impact for KKR and starred towards the end of last season as the pitches slowed.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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Gujarat Titans v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Wednesday 27 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pandya bailing his side out

Seven games, six wins. Who would have thought it?

Every IPL side would love to have any one of Mohammed Shami, Lockie Ferguson or Rashid Khan. They might even take all three.

But if they could pick Gujarat batsmen, who would they want? Right now, the only man who would get into one of the better IPL teams just as a batter is Hardik Pandya, who ironically, is an all-rounder.

It’s great for Pandya, Gujarat and arguably India that he’s batting so well but rather like with Jos Buttler at Rajasthan, what are they going to do when he gets out cheaply? Well, they’ll have to cross that bridge when they come to it because right now, he’s scoring fifties at will.

But with Matthew Wade now dropped (probably rightly), they’re down to just one or two players who can come good with the bat if he has an off-day.

Pandya by the way, didn’t bowl during their win over KKR. With five frontline bowlers plus Rahul Tewatia in the side he’s arguably not needed but they did look a bit better when he was available and bowling in the Powerplay overs.

If they’re concerned about their batting going forward, they may consider replacing Alzarri Joseph with bowling all-rounder Dominic Drakes, who’s the better batsman.

Gujarat’s Likely XI

Saha, Gill, Pandya, Miller, Manohar, Tewatia, Khan, Joseph, Dayal, Shami, Ferguson.

Can SRH win in a chase?

What do you make of SRH?

A really good bowling side under an excellent captain with three overseas batsmen with real class about them?

Or a good side with a questionable middle order who has just been extremely fortunate in winning seven (yes, seven) tosses in a row and making the most of the fact they got to chase in all of them, and won the last five doing just that?

Well, we’ll have to wait till Kane Williamson does eventually lose a toss and they have to bat first to see if they’re just a one-trick pony.

It’s certainly not Williamson’s fault he keeps calling right.

More to the point, any side as strong with the ball as they are (or Gujarat as well, for that matter) is always going to be competitive. And then some.

Those five in a row have seen them go into second place in the table and into third favourites at 5.69/2 to go all the way. They’ve been matched at a high of 65.064/1.

Washington Sundar should be back after picking up a hand injury and missing three matches on the spin.

Sunrisers’ Likely XI

Sharma, Williamson, Tripathi, Pooran, Markram, Singh, Sundar, Kumar, Jansen, Natarajan, Malik.

Pitch report

We’re at the famous Wankhede Stadium for this one.

The last three here saw Rajasthan get 222 against Delhi on Friday, which the Capitals came remarkably close to chasing.

Lucknow made a decent 168 thanks to a masterclass from KL Rahul and it’s a good thing for them he batted so well because no-one else got going.

Neither did anyone from Mumbai, everyone finding the surface a little two-paced on the day. Mumbai fell well short.

KL Rahul.jpg

And then on Monday, the Punjab Kings posted a very competitive 188 in another odd innings where only Shikhar Dhawan got going. In the end it was also enough to beat CSK and in the process, it means the last three have all been won by the side batting first.

SRH value in the chase

Gujarat are 1.875/6, a reflection of the fact they’re top of the table and have arguably the best bowling line-up of anyone at the tournament.

But SRH are just one win behind and arguably have the second-best bowling line-up of anyone. They probably have a better battling line-up than Gujarat, as well.

Of course, we don’t know how the Sunrisers will fare batting first, because we haven’t seen them do it yet.

Gujarat have proved they can do both, winning three having first digs and three chasing, so they’re a versatile team.

By the way, the one that the Titans didn’t win was against this lot, posting a below-par 162, chased with ease by Hyderabad at the DY Patil Stadium.

Given that game, the fact that there isn’t a big toss bias at this ground and that there’s not much to choose between them, SRH look the pre-toss pick at 2.111/10.

But the safer strategy might be to wait for the toss and take anything above 1.9620/21 if Hyderabad get to chase once again seeing as that’s obviously what they prefer doing.

Kane could be able

Let’s look at the three batsmen who shone in the last three games here at the Wankhede, also being the top match batsman in the process: Jos Buttler, KL Rahul and Shikhar Dhawan.

shikhar dhawan.jpg

What do they have in common? They’re all opening batsmen, are all over 30 years old and are class acts rather than sloggers. The last point is important because the Wankhede has been a tougher pitch than in the past and it can’t all be big shots. You need expertise to compile scores here.

The one player ticking all those boxes is Williamson.

Many will question how it’s possible that he’s striking at 94 for the season and is still opening. Not to mention, SRH are still winning.

But that’s Williamson for you and to be fair to him, he’s been well aware that in a chase they need him around batting cautiously, rather than being in the hutch after batting recklessly.

He’s been boosted to 10/3 to be SRH top bat and following my rationale, that’s a good enough price at it is. But with only Pandya to worry about for the Titans, I’ll push the boat out and take the 5/1 he’s the top batsman in the match.

Under-the-radar Dayal boasting excellent strike rate

The odds-compilers can’t split Khan, Ferguson and Shami, all 11/4 shots to be Gujarat top bowler. They’re on eight, nine and 10 wickets respectively.

But with six wickets to his name in just three matches, you can go with Yash Dayal, whose strike rate is 12.0, the best of anyone in the side, despite it being from a smaller sample of matches.

It’s possible that SRH will feel they need to show respect to those famed three, taking what they can, and need to target the rest.

Which of course includes Dayal.

It’s a punt all right because we’ve spent half this preview praising all three of them. But then again, they’re the price they are and Dayal is considerably bigger at 9/2.

Back Samson to lift Rajasthan

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Royal Challengers Bangalore v Rajasthan Royals
Tuesday, April 26th: 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Bangalore humiliated in Mumbai

Royal Challengers will want to move swiftly on from their poor display at the Brabourne Stadium at the weekend. A total of just 68 was never going to challenge an in-form Sunrisers team who chased down their target with a full 12 overs to spare.

Virat Kohli’s form is an obvious concern: He registered his second first-ball duck in succession on Saturday but there is a lack of consistency throughout the batting line up. Faf Du Plessis and Glenn Maxwell have delivered on occasions but need more support.

The bowling unit could do little as they looked to defend 69 in Mumbai but this has been a stronger area for RCB. Josh Hazlewood has been effective since arriving late while Mohammed Siraj has been fast and hostile with the new white ball.

The Buttler did it – again

A year ago, Jos Buttler was waiting for his first IPL century. Now he has four in this tournament including three in this edition. His numbers are phenomenal this season: Buttler is only the second batter, after Virat Kohli, to hit three tons in a single IPL campaign and he’s currently cruising in the Orange Cap race.

Rajasthan are not a one man team: Sanju Samson and Devdutt Padikkal added 100 between them as the Royals posted 222/2 against Delhi. The Daredevils came close to chasing that down with Rajasthan’s fifth bowler option proving costly.

With Yuzvendra Chahal ahead in the Purple Cap battle, there is danger throughout the team but Jos Buttler is clearly the key wicket.

Can RCB find relief in Pune?

Du Plessis’ Royal Challengers will be happy to leave the Brabourne behind as they cross to the MCA International Stadium in Pune. RCB won on their previous visit to this ground, easing past Mumbai Indians by seven wickets.

Rajasthan also won on their only trip to Pune, recording a comfortable victory over the Sunrisers. This is just the seventh game to be played here this season. The previous six matches have returned an average first innings score of 176. Three scores above 170 have been successfully defended while the remaining three – at 169 and below – have been chased down.

Whoever wins the toss will likely look to insert and keep the opposition below that average first innings total.

It’s tight at the top of the betting: Rajasthan are ahead at 1.9620/21 while the Royal Challengers are only just behind at 1.991/1. In terms of overall results at IPL 15, there’s not much to split the teams. Both have ten points but the Royals have played seven games as opposed to RCB’s eight.

Immediate form should be a stronger indicator. Bangalore were dismal on Saturday and, while they can’t get any worse, there are clear issues in the camp. Rajasthan have greater depth and I’d have faith in this team, even if Jos Buttler were to fail.

When one player starts to dominate a Top Batter market, there are some interesting prices among their teammates. Jos Buttler is predictably short for Rajasthan although a price boost on the sportsbook lifts him to 21/10.

Devdutt Padikkal is next at 10/3 with Shimron Hetmyer at 9/2 but the player that interests me is Sanju Samson. The skipper has been a consistent foil and top scored on one of the few occasions when Buttler failed. Samson looks generous at 9/2 and is my recommended bet for Tuesday.

It’s been great to watch Yuzvendra Chahal spin Rajasthan to success in this tournament. If you’re looking for a third pick, Yuzi looks an obvious choice at 9/4 to be the Royals’ leading wicket taker.

Over at the #OddsOnThat section of the sportsbook, he forms an elaborate, but plausible option. Chahal to take at least one wicket, plus Jos Buttler, Devdutt Padikkal and Sanju Samson to score at least 20 runs is a serious tempter at 5/1.

CSK should have the smarts

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Punjab Kings v Chennai Super Kings
Monday 25 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Punjab mess

Punjab have lost their way badly. They started the tournament as gung-ho and confident with the bat, prepared to take on everyone and everything. But after some low totals they have gone into their shell.

A run of wins to mount a play-off challenge now looks unlikely. As soon as players stop trusting the method or strategy, they are done for.

There are also issues with balance. There was huge pressure on Odean Smith in terms of price tag and holding the team together. Despite his talent, the gamble doesn’t appear to have paid off. In their last outing they batted Kagiso Rabada at No 7.

If they used Liam Livingstone’s bowling more they could right themselves. Bringing back Bhanuka Rajapaksa instead of a becalmed Jonny Bairstow might be an idea.

Possible XI: Dhawan, Agarwal, Rajapaka, Livingstone, Jitesh, Shahrukh, Odean, Rabada, Arshdeep, Chahar, Arora.

CSK need Moeen

Chennai gave themselves a glimmer of hope by beating Mumbai Indians in their last outing. This despite dropping Moeen Ali for Mitchell Santner.

This sort of thinking suggests a resurgence is unlikely. Santner is not fit to strap Moeen’s pads for him. Chennai need to back their No 3, recognising that form is temporary in this format. For inspiration all they need to do is recognise how Ravi Jadeja is the first name on the team sheet despite woeful form.

Otherwise they are slid on their other three overseas picks: Dwaine Pretorius, Dwayne Bravo and Mahesh Theekshana have been decent. Bowling has been an issue because of injuries to Adam Milne and Deepak Chahar.

Possible XI: Gaikwad, Uthappa, Moeen, Rayudu, Dube, Jadeja, Dhoni, Pretorius, Bravo, Theekshana, Choudhury

Pitch report

The seven first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) at the Wankhede this term read: 222-1/189-1/165-1/169-2/137-2/158-2/138-2.

That’s something of a mixed bag. An apparent trend for bowlers doing well was well and truly busted by Rajasthan against Delhi. Not that in the first six overs it looked that way. Delhi had kept Jos Buttler quiet.

With both of these units struggling with the ball – Punjab are ninth worst for bowling economy and Chennai equal seventh – going over theruns par line at around 179.5 should pay off in the first dig. Both teams to score 170 at 13/10 also has appeal. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

CSK brains trust wins it

The match odds market can barely split these two. CSK are 1.991/1 with Punjab 2.01/1. Both have significant issues but Punjab’s problems seem more severe.

A check of possible XIs reveal that. Simply, Chennai can at least balance themselves even if Moeen doesn’t come back in. Punjab on the other hand may well risk Rabada at No 7 again.

Their chronic lack of confidence with the bat is ideal for a Chennai team which have brains coming out of their boots. The likes of MS Dhoni and Bravo really should be capable of putting a squeeze on.

Tops value

Shikhar Dhawan has been boosted to 11/4 for top Punjab bat with Sportsbook and it might be time to put faith in one of the most reliable performers on the market. It’s a bet on win rate.

Rajapaksa is 7/2 while a word on Jitesh Sharma at 9s. He looks a real player and such numbers might not be around for long.

For Chennai, we have to pint out a mistake. Santner is 13/1. He batted at No 3 last time. By the letter of the law we have to take it because no-one batting in such a position should be as big. The problem is Santner isn’t very good.

If you prefer a win rate bet Ruturaj Gaikwad fits the bill at a price-boosed 7/2. His form has not been great but it’s hard to ignore.

With the ball, Mukesh Choudhury looks big at 4s for top CSK bowler. His left-armers are dangerous and he knocked over Mumbai’s top order last time. Bet the Sportsbook markets here

Lucknow rate top value to compound Mumbai misery

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Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians
Sunday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

They started as tournament favourites, boasting arguably the best historic IPL credentials, yet Mumbai Indians have lost all seven of their matches. Back at their usual home stadium, can they finally get off the mark?

LSG odds simply too big to ignore

Despite the gulf between their respective results so far, the market here rates both sides even at odds of 2.01/1. The only possible explanation can be the team’s long-term reputation and popularity with bettors. Frankly, Mumbai have been a disaster whilst their opponents have legitimate title claims, within two points of top place at the time of writing.

Consider Mumbai’s matches. Three teams batted first against them, supposedly a disadvantage, recording totals of 193, 198 and 199. Of the four teams batting second, three easily chased down the total. Only the Chennai match, last time out, was close, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Mumbai didn’t just labour to 155. It was a miracle, requiring four very easy dropped catches. Another day, they could have been all out for 100. Plus their opponents were the team placed second bottom.

Mumbai struggling in all departments

The team is in disarray. Rohit Sharma and Ishan Kishan are in miserable form, the tail has been too long in some games and the bowling unit simply aren’t threatening enough. One positive at least on the last front was Daniel Sams taking four wickets. He’ll surely retain his place now and strengthen that tail. More on that later.

When these sides met earlier, Lucknow won by 18 runs at the Brabourne, with K.L. Rahul hitting an unbeaten ton. They’ve only played once since, losing to a Faf-inspired RCB, the tournament favourites. Looking at the longer-term and the balance of their side, they look considerably superior to Mumbai.

Lucknow batting depth looks formidable now

In Rahul and Quinton de Kock, they have arguably the best opening pair. Now Marcus Stoinis and Jason Holder are available, they’ve got great balance with two all-rounders who can finish. The latter can form a great death bowling partnership with Avesh Khan. In Ravi Bishnoi and Krunal Pandya, they have two spinners who should come become more potent now on used pitches.

I’m not overly worried about a toss bias. In 17 games at the Wankhede over the past two years, chasers lead defenders 9-8. The last three were won from batting first. In this case, presented with what I regard completely unjustifiable odds, we must bet pre-match at Evens.

Back overs on runs after halfway

The last match here produced 435 runs, with Rajasthan hitting 222 first up. Presumably this will be a different strip but the Wankhede scoring trends were illustrated perfectly. Buttler and Padikkal were cautious early, saving wickets for what they knew was a golden opportunity in the final ten overs. From halfway, they hit 135 runs.

Obviously that is an extreme but the boundaries are short. In the penultimate match here, RCB hit 89 off the last seven and that is pretty much the standard. If memory serves, odds around 4.03/1 were available at the 13 over mark on the highest runs band they beat.

This is definitely a superior way to trade runs at the Wankhede, as opposed to forming a judgement pre-match. Early wickets are frequent so wait and re-assess the situation after the first powerplay. Don’t shy away from the extreme ‘overs’ targets.

I’m tempted to back Over 14.5 Sixes. 26 were hit on Friday and the bet has landed five matches on the spin. However the nature of T20 means such runs are bound to end and scores are beginning to come down, so swerve that.

Try Mumbai finishers at big odds

One consequence of those trends is that middle-order batsmen have a better chance of top-scoring at this ground, because most runs are scored in the second half of the innings.

With Mumbai’s top order in such bad form, let’s back their numbers six and seven, Kieron Pollard and Daniel Sams at 10/1 and 40/1 respectively. Pollard has a long history of flicking sixes over these boundaries, while the latter is no mug with the bat. Sams has often been promoted much higher in the Big Bash.

As usual there are two #OddsBoosts available on openers. Rahul is enhanced to 23/10 for Lucknow, Sharma to 10/3 for Mumbai.

Finally regarding Top Lucknow Wicket-Taker, Avesh Khan is too short at 2/1. As Ed Hawkins points out time and again on Cricket…Only Bettor, Jason Holder consistently returns a profit in this market. 10/3 is very fair.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Karthik and Hazlewood primed to be RCB’s main men

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Royal Challengers Bangalore v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Saturday 23 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

RCB finding new ways to win

One of the things you look for in a side capable of winning the IPL is the ability to win games from different positions and in different circumstances.

We knew that RCB looked good in the chase and that they had lots of firepower in that lower-middle order with Dinesh Karthik and Shahbaz Ahmed coming up with crucial quick runs on several occasions.

But what we saw on Tuesday was a different sort of performance. This time round it was the somewhat out-of-form opener Faf Du Plessis batting deep to set Lucknow a stiff target and they showed they can also defend good totals on good wickets.

The secret to that win was not letting anyone go out and get a big score. Krunal Pandya top scored for the Super Giants with 42 but they kept chipping away and won by 18 runs.

That included a big moment of controversy with the excellent Josh Hazlewood (4-25) bowling a borderline wide (it was a wide) that wasn’t called and Marcus Stoinis shouting an obscenity that could almost be heard back in Australia when he then played on next ball, to end Lucknow’s hopes.

Virat Kohli is going through one of the leanest patches of his career in terms of runs. If he wasn’t Kohli, he’d have been dropped by now.

RCB’s Likely XI

Du Plessis, Bharat, Kohli, Maxwell, Prabhudessai, Ahmed, Karthik, Hasaranga, Patel, Hazlewood, Siraj.

Odd bunch SRH right in the mix

SRH are an odd side. Their skipper Kane Williamson is, in many people’s view, not a T20 player to begin with, though his career stats suggest otherwise.

Aiden Markram was recently dropped for the South African ODI side and may find a similar fate in the Test side when SA next have a series, though admittedly his T20 form has been a bit better.

Nicholas Pooran is one of cricket’s great enigmas as an incredibly gifted batsman who never seems to finish the job.

Umran Malik is one of the fastest bowlers at the tournament and was one of their retained players despite not playing for India yet.

Another of their retained players (you’d think they’d walk into the side if they were retained) in Abdul Samad has since been dropped.

We could go on.

But after a poor start with two losses, Williamson has made the whole thing work and they’re now four from six and with every chance of getting a playoff place.

Last time out they bowled brilliantly to restrict Punjab to just 151 and chased it with minimum of fuss.

Markram is looking particularly good, having scored 41 not out in that one and 68 not out in the game before.

Sunrisers’ Likely XI

Sharma, Williamson, Tripathi, Pooran, Markram, Singh, Suchith, Kumar, Jansen, Natarajan, Malik.

Pitch report

We’re at Brabourne for this one.

Until Wednesday it was meant to be an absolute road with the par score around the 190 mark and chasing those sorts of scores very possible as long as you didn’t lose too many wickets.

So what do we make of Punjab’s 115 all out against Delhi on Wednesday?


Everyone bowled beautifully for Delhi and the Punjab found new and exciting ways of getting out to balls they shouldn’t have.

Shikhar Dhawan inside edged into the keeper’s gloves down the leg side, Liam Livingstone danced down the wicket and was stumped, Jonny Bairstow found the only man positioned on the leg side. And so on.

If anything, the ease with which David Warner and Prithvi Shaw went about the chase showed there was nothing wrong with that wicket at all.

So we should be looking at another high-scoring game.

SRH value in the chase

RCB are 1.758/11. Whereas I’m not surprised by that price, that’s not to say I agree with it. They have the stronger batting line-up but I’d favour SRH’s bowling right now.

If Malik is bowling rockets, Bhuvi Kumar is keeping good line and length and T Natarajan is miserly in the death overs, RCB may not have it all their own way here and sooner or later that Bangalore middle-order may not be able to bail them out.

But there’s a slight issue with the 2.265/4 on SRH. All of the four matches they’ve won so far were chasing so we don’t know that they can post a decent score and then defend it because they haven’t been in that position yet.

But if Hyderabad get to chase and you can still get 2.111/10 about them, that’s still a very decent bet.

RCB’s middle-order hitters in the game

The ‘regular’ 11/4 about Kohli top-scoring for RCB is about three weeks late as an April Fool’s Day prank and even the boosted 10/3 is an awful price on a player so horribly out of form.

Even Kohli’s big supporter, ex-India coach Ravi Shastri, says his ‘brain is fried’ after a year where he gave up three captaincy roles and was stripped of another, while losing to deadly rivals Pakistan for the first time ever at a World Cup.

But what the Sportsbook odds-compilers take with one hand, they give with the other.

Despite batting down at five, six or seven, Dinesh Karthik is the team’s second top runscorer on 210. That, admittedly, is because he’s only got out once in seven innings.

On the one hand it means his average for the season is ridiculously inflated, on the other it tells you how well he’s playing that he’s never getting out. His strike rate of 205 is Andre Russell territory. On a good day for Dre Russ.

Against the Royals, his 44 was pipped by Shahbaz Ahmed’s 45 and against CSK his 34 was again second only to Ahmed’s 41. He then finally won the betting heat with 66 not out against Delhi.

So that’s one win in seven and two cases of coming pretty close indeed. Karthik will do us just fine as a 13/1 shot.

As will Ahmed, for that matter, who is the same price and as we’ve said already, has already won it twice himself.

Of course, given that they both bat in that middle-order, we’d need a bit of a collapse for them to have a chance. But that’s’ why they’re the big price and besides, it’s happened enough times already to think it may happen again.

Hazlewood under-rated

With the ball, Josh Hazlewood should probably be favourite.


He started the season with a solitary wicket against CSK and then took three and four wickets respectively in his next two games, including of course the wicket of Stoinis that sparked that incident. Unsurprisingly, both efforts were enough for him to be their top wicket-taker on the day.

In the likes of Patel, Hasaranga and Siraj, he has some good players to beat.

But he’s been in fantastic form, bowls at the death and is a bigger price than them at 7/2, so it’s not a hard call.