Month: March 2022

Runs up front the key

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Pakistan v Australia
Thursday 31 March 11.00
Live on BT Sport

Pakistan looking limited

Pakistan lost Shaheen Shah Afridi to injury the day before game one and they missed his pace and verve with the ball as they conceded 313.

Whether Afridi is fit for this one looks highly doubtful. He was struck on the knee in the nets and although the blow may only be superficial what is the point of Pakistan risking their main man who has had an extraordinary workload over the last six months?

There were bright spots in the convincing defeat. Imam-ul-Haq’s century reminds everyone he is one of the best openers in the world in this format while Babar Azam made a pleasing half-century.

But the middle-order lacks quality. Iftikhar, at No 6, and Hasan Ali at No 8 are both a place too high one suspects. There’s little they can do to remedy. It would be good to see Usman Qadir given a game to hit Australia with as much spin as possible but they would then have balance issues.

Possible XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Iftikhar, Khushdil, Hasan, M Wasim, Mehmood

Aussie’s fire in adversity

No Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, David Warner, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc. No problem. No Josh Inglis, Mitchell Marsh, Jane Richardson or Ashton Agar, either.

Given the depleted resources Australia did a remarkable job to win game one so convincingly. The 88-run success was testament to their depth as much as their fight. They were under the pump with Imam and Babar going well in the chase but came back superbly.

Travis Head and Adam Zampa were the stars of the show. Head’s brutal century in an unfamiliar opening berth marked him down as a player of the highest quality. Zampa’s four-wicket haul turned the game as he ripped the heart out of the Pakistan chase.

We expect a similar Aussie line-up. They don’t have much choice. Marsh and Richardson are out of the series with injuries while Inglis and Agar both have Covid.

Possible XI: Head, Finch, McDermott, Labuschagne, Stoinis, Green, Carey, Abbott, Swepson, Ellis, Zampa

Pitch report

The Gaddafi Stadium has been one for the batters in T20 and Head could have been forgiven for thinking it was a thrash-and-bash surface. His strike rate of 140 suggested there were few demons. It was also interesting to see the continued bleed into 50-over from 20-over tactics.

More than 300 should be the aim for the side batting first and we have few qualms about which side gets first go. Paying high on the runs line at mid 280s or early 290s doesn’t seem too risky.

Advantage defender

Team news seems to be dictating the prices rather than what happened in game one. The match odds market reckon Australia’s player drain will get them in the end. Pakistan are 1.774/5.

Child’s play, then, to reckon Australia are value at 2.3211/8. We’d like that comfort blanket of them batting first, however. If they do that, another 300-plus score is on the cards and those odds should flip.

Australia have proved they can expose Pakistan’s middle order through Zampa. However, if Pakistan bat first we could rather quickly feel the heat on an Australia bet because they are loaded up top with their best three in Fakhar Zaman, Imam and Babar. Bet the match odds here

Tops value

As discussed for game one, Fakhar, Imam and Babar are all value on win rates in the last three years for top Pakistan bat. Sportsbook go 7/2 the first pair and boost Babar to 13/5. An honourable mention to Mohammad Rizwan who at 11/2 has oodles of quality.

Head is into 10/3 for top Aussie with Labuschagne 9/2. Camron Green’s cameo in game one suggests the 17/1 is toppy.

With the ball Afridi is into 11/4 from 3/1. We don’t expect him to play but on return rate it is a wager. He should be outright jolly instead of sharing status with Hasan Ali.

Zampa has been cut from 7/2 to 5/2. It’s a reasonable adjustment and given that we played and won last time we’re happy to swerve in the knowledge the value has gone. Bet Sportsbook markets here

This week’s IPL matches previewed on Cricket…Only Bettor

Lucknow Super Giants v Chennai Super Kings IPL Tips: Rahul’s revenge

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Lucknow Super Giants v Chennai Super Kings
Thursday 31 March, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Holder availability a big boost

It’s hard to think of a worst possible start for KL Rahul and Lucknow. The big-name signing and skipper was out first ball on review against Gujarat, a feather being picked up by hot spot.

Quinton de Kock and Evin Lewis followed shortly before fifties from the experienced Deepak Hooda and debutant Ayush Badoni, helped by a cameo from Krunal Pandya, at least gave them something (159) to bowl at.

At one stage they had Gujarat in trouble so credit goes to their bowling. But the total was never going to be quite enough on a wicket favouring the chaser.

They’ll be delighted to be able to play Jason Holder here. He’s available after being an important part of the West Indies team who just beat England in the Test series and given they only played three overseas players last time, they won’t have to sacrifice one for him to come in.

They also have the option of replacing Evin Lewis with Kyle Mayers and having another bowling option.

Possible XI:

Rahul, De Kock, Pandey, Deepak Hooda, Badoni, Krunal, Holder, Chameera, Mohsin Khan, Bishnoi, Avesh Khan.

Jadeja and CSK need to bounce back

Sometimes it’s hard to know what MS Dhoni is thinking.

Why did he resign the CSK captaincy? Why did he wait till the eve of the start of the IPL to do so? Was it fair on CSK that he did so after being retained (presumably) based on the understanding he was going to stay on as skipper?

Ravindra Jadeja takes over as skipper and becomes one of the most hard-worked players at the tournament given he’s a genuine all-rounder away from captaincy duties.

They weren’t great against KKR with Jadeja himself just one of several batsmen who struggled on the day. Interestingly, it was Dhoni rolling back the years with a rare half-century to top score for them.

It was a poor performance all round but they can be excused one and they badly missed Moeen Ali, who is available for this match.

Possible XI:

Gaikwad, Conway, Ali, Rayudu, Uthappa, Jadeja, Dhoni, Bravo, Dube, Milne, Deschpande.

Pitch report

Brabourne isn’t often used in the IPL so we really don’t have much to go on.

But it was here that Delhi chased Mumbai’s big total (178) after a middle-order collapse at the weekend. So, whereas predicting a par score isn’t so straightforward, predicting what the captain who wins the toss will do, should be.

After Delhi’s success in that chase and the fact that four of the five matches so far have been won by the chaser, bowling first will be the easy choice.

Toss could be crucial at Brabourne

As a new franchise (Lucknow), there’s obviously no head-to-head to go by here. Although given the vast personnel changes, you could argue that’s not of much use anyway this season.

CSK are 1.738/11 favourites, which sounds about right. They’re the defending champions, a lot of these guys have played together over the years, with CSK buying back more players than most other teams, and are better drilled as a result.

That’s fair enough but I think Lucknow are a better side than they showed on Monday and will be stronger for having Holder on board.

MSDhoni1280.JPG

This looks like the sort of game between two relatively evenly-matched teams that could be yet again won by the chaser. With that in mind, backing Lucknow at 2.35/4 and hoping the toss goes their way looks the slightly smarter pre-toss option.

But we can find better bets than that.

Rahul to bite back

It’s hard to keep a good man down and they don’t come much better than KL Rahul. His record in the IPL is as good as anyone’s in terms of average, strike rate and bulk of runs over the last three years. In fact, it’s probably the best full stop. He got a good one first up last time but that could happen to anyone.

Quinton de Kock (11/4) rates a big threat of course but his record is nowhere near Rahul’s, while Evin Lewis is batting out of position and doesn’t boast a great record in the IPL. Deepak Hooda was an 8/1 winner last time and has been cut to 15/2 but you’d need another top order collapse for him to have a chance here again.

So we’re going with the man who has averaged over 50 in the competition for the past four years, especially because he’s been price boosted to 13/5 from 21/10.

Holder’s numbers speak for themselves

Jason Holder is another with an excellent record in the IPL over the years, with the ball.

Jason Holder.jpg

His overall record of 35 wickets in 26 games is good enough but it’s even better when you look at how he’s done over the past two seasons: 14 in seven (2020) and 16 in eight (2021). If this goes true to form here and he claims two wickets, he’ll have very chance.

It really does make you wonder why he wasn’t an automatic pick at SRH for the past couple of years, given he also bats.

In a relatively inexperienced bowling line-up, he could be the one using all of his experience here and 7/2 is pretty decent for a player with his numbers.

Dre Russ to show power

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Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kolkata Knight Riders
Wednesday 30 March 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Reliable RCB

There’s something very sweet indeed about the status quo remaining with RCB despite a mega auction and a change in captaincy from Virat Kohli to Faf Du Plessis.

They are still profligate with the ball, either through a lack of skill or nerve. How many times have we seen Mohammad Siraj spray it around as they fail desperately to defend a big score?

After defeat by Punjab, having posted 205, it would be very RCB to make a raft of changes. Well, that was Kohli’s way anyway. Du Plessis has more about him than that so we expect the same XI. Glenn Maxwell, Josh Hazlewood and Jason Behrendorff remain unavailable.

Possible XI: Du Plessis, Rawat, Kohli, Karthik, Rutherford, Willey, Shahbaz, Hasaranga, Harshal, Siraj, Deep

Kolkata Knight Riders lived up to the expectation that they are genuine contenders by beating the holders, Chennai, in their first game of the season.

There was a lot to like about their performance with the ball. They restricted the Super Kings to just 131, and it could (perhaps should) have been better as they allowed MS Dhoni to cut loose.

They chased with relative ease, although it was slightly disappointing to see Ajinkya Rahane open the batting. They need far more intent than that if they are to go deep.

Possible XI: Venkatesh, Rahane, Rana, Shreyas, Billings, Russell, Jackson, Narine, Umesh, Mavi, Chakratharvy

Pitch report

This is the first IPL action at DY Patil Stadium since 2011. Back then it was one for the blowers. If RCB v Punjab is anything to go by the nature of the surface has changed markedly. Both posted 200 or more. A repeat is 11/1 with Sportsbook.

Safer bets are the 4/5 that both notch 160 or the 7/5 that both hit 170. Du Plessis complained about dew against Punjab so that’s a good pointer. The boundaries look short to the eye, too, with back-foot sixes hit straight. Bet the Sportsbook odds here.

KKR the pick

One of the golden rules of the IPL has been to take RCB on at odds-on. So we would not need to be told twice when they are priced as short as 1.784/5. KKR are pushing 2.305/4.

It is early days, of course, but we expect KKR to be shown to be superior over the tourny and if the toss goes their way and they chase, we’re very happy to get with them at around 2.1011/10. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Andre Russell plays his 400th franchise game. He is 16/1 for man of the match. We’re not having an emotional bet, merely pointing out that it looks way too big. On win rate (yes, we checked all 399) he should be 11s.

Russell is that price for top KKR bat. That’s a bet on win rate, too. We’re also enamoured with the 9/2 that he finishes as top bowler because Pat Cummins is listed and won’t play, meaning Dre Russ should get the death-bowling gig.

We note the tendency for the match gong to go to impact players. An example being Odean Smith in the RCB-Punjab match. Russell is more than capable of a quickfire 20-odd to turn a game and take the plaudits. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Afridi and Zampa can dazzle

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Pakistan v Australia
Tuesday 29 March 11.00
TV: live on BT Sport

Pakistan need courage

Pakistan are smarting after defeat by Australia in the Test series. It was an opportunity missed as they bizarrely failed to have the conviction to prepare spicy-enough surfaces.

A safety-first approach individually has been a factor in their white-ball play recently and it seems to have spread to the collective. Are Pakistan playing for themselves or each other?

They come into this series off the back of a 3-0 defeat by England in England. Not relevant. They were decent in a 2-1 win in South Africa. But it was only 2019 that they lost 3-0 to Australia in the UAE.

A clue as to whether they’re going for it is if they pick mystery spinner Usman Qadir instead of the more steady option in Mohammad Nawaz.

Possible XI: Imam, Fakhar, Babar, Rizwan, Asif Ali, Khushdil, Iftikhar, Hasan, Rauf, Qadir, Afridi

Australia depleted

Australia are not at full-strength. They have given their big-name players a rest after Test series exertions.

Steve Smith, David Warner, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood are not in the squad. Usman Khawaja might have been a smart recall given his form but instead Marnus Labuschagne and Aaron Finch are the senior batters. Glenn Maxwell is not involved.

It’s something of an audition for the rest. Josh Inglis, Ben McDermott and Travis Head get the chance to nail down a spot.

With the ball, Kane Richardson is attack-leader. Spinner Adam Zampa will be key and is likely to form a decent partnership with Ashton Agar.

Possible XI: Finch, Inglis, Labuschagne, Head, Stoinis, Carey, Agar, Abbott, Richardson, Behrendorff, Zampa

Pitch report

There hasn’t been an ODI in Lahore, as you would expect, since 2015. Nor is it particularly helpful that there hasn’t been a List A game there since 2018. The last five first digs, for what it’s worth, have scores that read (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second): 291-1/321-1/164-2/329-1/261-1.

Those numbers suggest the big runs seen in T20 cricket in recent times means bat dominates ball. With all three matches in the series at the Gaddafi, it makes sense to keep a watching brief for one game at least to get a good idea of the surface before going long on runs.

Tourists can trade

Pakistan are 1.784/5 with Australia 2.285/4. That’s a cheeky price about a Pakistan side which has just failed to make home advantage count.

The key could still be spin, despite Australia being without their first-choice pace attack. Zampa and Agar have worked well together and in a match-up against, say Usman Qadir and Iftikhar, they more than hold their own.

And the teams may well be matched nicely in terms of intent. Australia and Pakistan have had a habit of playing the old-fashioned way, trying to build platforms instead of going hell for leather at the start.

At a minimum we’d expect Australia capable of flipping these odds, so a simple trade could be shrewd particularly if batting second under lights is tricky and the flip goes their way. And by that we mean a dew issue. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Babar Azam has been boosted to 11/4 for top Pakistan bat. On three-year form he has a win rate of 33.3%. So there’s an edge of 6.6%. There’s an even bigger edge of 7.7% on Fakhar Zaman at 4/1, however. Imam-ul-Haq has an edge of 7.2% on win rate at 7/2.

When spilt for choice it may be wise not to get involved at all. Normally we have only one option on win rates but three? It’s hard to make a case for standout.

For Australia, Labuschagne has been boosted to 7/2 but it’s zero wins in 13. Warner and Smith have dominated for three years. Marcus Stoinis looks aa batting order wager at 10s.

Luckily there’s two standouts for top bowler. Zampa has six wins in 23 and three ties. Sportsbook’s 7/2 is therefore generous. Shaheen Afridi has six wins in 18 and has three ties. He is a generous 3/1. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Dhawan dangerous for fast start

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Punjab Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunday 27 March, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Punjab poised

Once Punjab have their strongest squad available they should be bang in contention for the title. But they will have to be patient.

They are without Kagiso Rabada and Jonny Bairstow for example. That opens up opportunities for Benny Howell and Bhanuka Rajapaksa respectively. Both are more than solid T20 players and suggests Punjab have, finally, recruited well.

Their strength is Indian domestic talent at the top of the order with Shikhar Dhawan and Mayank Agarwal opening the batting. Liam Livingstone needs a breakthough IPL season, though. The same is true for West Indies all-rounder Odean Smith.

Both are extremely talented but there is some pressure on them to perform. Both men balance the side. Prab Singh takes the gloves in the absence of Bairstow.

Possible XI: Dhawan (17.47 boundary %), Agarwal (19.40), Rajapaksa, Livingstone (18.13), Odean Smith (18.37), Singh, Harpreet, Howell, Sandeep Sharma, Rahul Chahar, Arshdeep

Killer Kohli

These early exchanges of the IPL are something of a phoney war with bench strength being tested. RCB, for example, are without their overseas core of Glenn Maxwell, Josh Hazlewood and Jason Behrendorff. No Aussies are allowed to play until April 6.

Sherfane Rutherford and David Willey could be the beneficiaries while there may be a spot for Kiwi opener Finn Allen.

Perhaps new skip’s biggest problem is go-slow Virat Kohli. Of our projected top sixes across the tournament Kohli has the third lowest boundary percentage and the worst rate of any No 3.

Possible XI: Du Plessis (17.31 boundary %), Anuj Rawat (19.42), Kohli (11.89), Rutherford, Karthik (18.33), Hasaranga (28.68), Willey, Shahbaz, Harshal Patel, Kaul, Siraj.

Pitch report

The DY Patil Stadium was one for the bowlers the last time it hosted IPL matches back in 2011. There were only two scores of 160 or more in the first dig in seven games. But those games were too long ago to hang a bet on. Unfortunately they are all we’ve got to go on so this surface is a watching brief.

Punjab the pick

Punjab are slight outsiders at 2.0621/20 with Bangalore 1.875/6. This will be an early test for one of the more trusted IPL betting strategies down the years.

That is to lay RCB when odds-on. It’s as much about ethos as playing personnel. RCB have always underachieved, largely because of the influence of Kohli, whose captaincy (tactically and management) appears to leave plenty to be desired.

It’s a risk though because Kohli’s influence on decisions is on the wane after he was replaced as skip. He can still do plenty of damage with the bat, though.

Punjab rate as value on the basis that with both sides losing key men, this looks a clear choice affair. We may even get 2.1011/10 when the market matures. Bet the match odds here here.

Tops value

Dhawan has been boosted to 10/3 for top Punjab bat and in a match of unknows in terms of team changes and the wicket, it’s a price that stands out like a beacon. Dhawan is one of the most reliable on this market in the tournament and he gives us a chunky edge on two-year win rate. Sure, he has competition in the form of the excellent Mayank Agarwal at 13/5 but value is value. Livingstone is 4/1.

Kohli is boosted to 13/5 but it won’t be a surprise that we’re leaving that alone. Instead Dinesh Karthik could be a bet at a chunky 14s.

On other markets, Arshdeep has appeal at 11/4 for top Punjab bowler. he’s our pick over the series and with Rabada missing he should be clear favourite. He is likely to bowl at the death, too, picking up cheap wickets.

Last year’s top tournament wicket-taker Harshal Patel is priced at 2/1 for top RCB. He is also 11/1 for the man of the match. Arshdeep is 18s. We’re referencing those in case we get a bowler’s dream.

Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Mumbai Indians v Delhi Capitals IPL Tips: Hoping for big runs

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Mumbai Indians v Delhi Capitals
Sunday 27 March, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Delhi depleted

Delhi Capitals should have probably won at least one of the last two IPL titles. But they are still awaiting their first trophy.

After the mega auction, it could be a long wait. They look weaker than in previous years having lost Indian batting talent like Shikhar Dhawan and Shreyas Iyer.

And they won’t be at full-strength here. David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Lungi Ngidi, Mustafizur Rahman and Anrich Nortje are unavailable. Nortje has a niggle which could derail his season. That’s one to watch.

Much depends, then, on Prithvi Shaw and Rishabh Pant. Lalit Yadav might bat at No 3 so keep an eye on top runscorer odds when more come available.

Possible XI: Shaw, Seifert, Yadav, Pant, Powell, Sarfaraz, Axar, Shardul, Kuldeep, Nagarkoti, Sakariya

Yadav out

Mumbai Indians had a poor campaign in 2021. They failed to even make the play-offs. Punchy, then, that they used some of their purse at the auction to sign Jofra Archer, who is highly unlikely to play.

It means they will pick Jayden Unadkat, a bargain basement pacer, and have two slots in their XI for unproven young talent. Anmolpreet Singh and Tilak Varma could get the nod.

Such a strategy looks risky in the extreme when a senior player goes down. And that is exactly what has happened Sky Yadav is out of game one with a fractured thumb.

Mumbai need Yadav back as soon as possible because of his terrific hitting ability. With him in the top six they are ranked No 2 on boundary percentage.

Possible XI: Rohit, Ishan, Varma, Singh, Pollard, David, Allen, Mills, Unadkat, M Ashwin, Bumrah

Pitch report

The Brabourne Stadium has been eclipsed by its Churchgate neighbour the Wankhede as Mumbai’s No 1 venue. And not since 2015 has it hosted a T20 match of note. That was in the IPL when Raja-sthan posted 199 v KKR and held on by nine. The previous first digs saw scores of 201, 189 and 173. It was always pretty good for batting.

Last year in domestic 50-over there were big runs scored and it is reasonable to reckon that it will be bat that dominates ball.

Both teams to score 160 at 10/11 with Sportsbook might not be a bad jumping off point. Both for 170 is 17/10 and both for 180 is boosted to 7/2. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Mumbai the pick

Delhi and Mumbai are the 9/2 joint favourites for the title in this year’s IPL. Mumbai are a speculative tip at 16s to win it and hit the most sixes. Analysis here.

They are 1.774/5 to get an opening win and given Delhi’s depleted status, it should be a formality. The key will be how well Delhi’s makeshift bowling unit it goes. Match odds market is here.

Shardul Thakur is a top-notch attack leader and Chetan Sakariya has good numbers behind him but the wild card is Kamlesh Nagarkoti. He used to have extreme pace before injury and whether he comes back strong will be interesting. He has always been pricey.

Tops value

Warner has been listed by Sportsbook at 5/2 for top DC bat. He will not play. Shaw is therefore value at a boosted 10/3. Seifert is the same price. We also like Thakur at 60/1. Pant is 7/2.

For Mumbai, Rohit has been boosted to 11/4, the same price as opening partner Ishan Kishan. Kieron Pollard always catches the eye at 6s. Tim David is 7/1.

Thakur is 5/2 for most Delhi wickets. It’s skinny but only Nagarkoti, Sakaraiya and Kuldeep are listed by Sportsbook of available players. Jasprit Bumrah is 15/8.

With runs to the fore, Rohit, Ishan and Shaw catch the eye for man of the match at 7/1, 9/1 and 9/1 respectively. Bumrah is 11s. Bet the Sportsbook markets here. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Batting power holds key to glory

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Go hard or go home

It used to be said that a team couldn’t win a T20 tournament without a crack bowling unit. But if that was a reliable maxim for punters we’d have been betting Sunrisers Hyderabad religiously. And they’ve drawn a blank for the last five years.

Fitting, then, that just as the Indian Premier League has gone through its biggest evolution in its 15th season, that bettors need to have a rethink, too. We have two new franchises – Lucknow Super Giants and Gujarat Lions – and the ten teams will be split into two groups.

Post mega-auction with players switching allegiance for big dough, we need to cling to something. And it could be shrewd to hold tight to the chest the belief that it is hitting power that can separate the wheat from the chaff.

Hitting boundaries is likely to be the most significant metric. Chennai Super Kings won the 2021 tournament by finishing as the No 1-ranked team for batting boundary percentage and at No 7 for fewest boundaries conceded. The previous season Mumbai were first and third respectively. The No 1-ranked bowling team has won once in the last seven editions.

Big-bat power is king. Moreover, intent is king. Be aggressive and a team is rewarded. Seven of the tournaments since 2012 have been won by a team with a ranking in the top three for boundary percentage. And four of the last five have been won by the franchise hitting the most sixes.

Naturally our focus when it comes to finding a winning wager on the IPL is to decipher not only which teams can hit, but ones which will. The handbrake should be off from ball one.

Boundary % rankings
KKR 19.67
PK 19.09
MI 19.2
RCB 19.01
CSK 18.2
G 17.79
RR 17.6
L 16.77
SRH 16.3
DC 16.3
Average boundary percentage from possible top 6

KKR fit the bill

Kolkata Knight Riders are the No 1 on our pre-season batting boundary percentage rating. And we know with Brendon McCullum in charge that they will not be shy and retiring.

The Knight Riders are no better than 11/2 with Sportsbook but as big as 10.09/1 is available on the exchange. Sportsbook clearly recognise that batting power we’re talking about. Exchange users are probably worried about bowling depth, which has long been considered a weakness and wasn’t really solved in the auction.

A safety-first approach is the 2.3211/8 available that KKR make it to the play-offs in a revamped structure. KKR are grouped with Delhi Capitals, Mumbai Indians, Rajasthan Royals and Lucknow Super Giants

Each team will play teams in their group twice and one team from the opposite group twice, while facing the remaining four team once. The top two qualify. It is a bonus for KKR that they will play Sunrisers Hyderabad, possibly the weakest team in the competition, twice from the opposite group.

Check our team-by-team guide here for every teams strengths and weaknesses analysed.

The other pot (Group B) hosts Chennai, Bangalore, Punjab, Gujarat and, of course Sunrisers. It appears to be an easier section.

And that is why we fancy Punjab to qualify for the play-offs for the first time since 2014. They have recruited excellently in the auction, managing to secure high-level, premium domestic batting power in Shikhar Dhawan and Mayank Agarwal. England pair Jonny Bairstow and Liam Livingstone are also great pick-ups.

It’s the smartest squad they have picked for years. It’s also the best-balanced. It’s no coincidence that they are using the same data analysts which oversaw Birmingham Phoenix’s run to The Hundred final.

Punjab are 10.5019/2 on the exchange for glory and 6/5 with Sportsbook to qualify. Depending on your betting strategy, both rate as value.

There are some stinkers out there, none more so than 9/2 joint-favourites Delhi Capitals who rank bottom on our batting list. Their best chance of a first title appears to have gone after a mediocre auction. Relying on David Warner and an injured Anrich Nortje doesn’t look so shrewd.

On that basis there’s a case for betting Mumbai Indians at the same price. They are No 2 on batting power and despite a couple of slots for two unproven home players, this is arguably the most dangerous power unit they have assembled. Tim David and Kieron Pollard as finishers is frightening.

Sportsbook go 16/1 that Mumbai win the title and hit most sixes. Given our earlier stats that is outstanding value.

Chennai, who are 7/1, have lost key pacer Deepak Chahar to injury and might struggle to reproduce 2021 form. Bangalore would be our pick if they had the guts to drop Virat Kohli. But his presence in the side means they’re untouchable at 6/1.

If we’ve read the room wrong, Rajasthan Royals could be the surprise package. They have a solid squad and batsmen with more than enough ability to make our calculations look foolish. They are are 8/1.

Kohli kills RCB on Cricket…Only Bettor

Have a dart on Kishan

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Stick with openers

It’s that time of year where we bang the drum for opening batsman in the IPL. We say it every pre-season but you really need your head read if you pick a top runscorer betwho doesn’t open the batting.

Only twice in IPL history has a top runscorer not batted at No 1 and 2. Only twice has the winner not made it to the play-offs.

Below we have sorted each of the possible the openers by runs per innings in the last two years. You will spot their team name in brackets.

IPL openers last two years innings/runs/runs per innings

Rahul (LSG) 27/1296/48
Kishan (MI) 6/336/56
Gaikwad (CSK) 20/834/41.7
Agarwal (PK) 23/865/37.6
V Iyer (KKR) 10/370/37
Dhawan (PK) 33/1205/36.51
Faf (RCB) 26/909/34.9
Rana (KKR) 11/369/33.5
Buttler (RR) 13/397/30.5
Padikkal (RR) 29/884/30.4
Warner (DC) 23/696/30.2
De Kock (LSG) 27/800/29.6
Gill (GL) 31/918/29.6
Rohit (MI) 25/713/28.5
Shaw (DC) 28/707/25.2
Jaiswal (RR) 13/289/22.2

*Gurbaz (GL), Rawat (RCB) and Conway (CSK) are making IPL debut

KL Rahul is clearly the man to beat. And it’s no surprise that the Lucknow Super Giants hitter gets favourite status at 7/1 with Sportsbook.

But there’s early value on the RPI filter isn’t there? Ishan Kishan has a standout mark, albeit for a skinny study sample. It’s time he turned potential into big runs. Considering Mumbai should go deep, taking a risk at the 14/1 would make sense.

Perhaps smarter, though, is the 5/2 that he downs 11/10 jolly Rohit Sharma for top Mumbai bat. There’s not much to beat in terms of runs per innings. Bet the market here.

Last two years IPL innings/runs/runs per innings

Williamson (SRH) 21/583/27.7
Tripathi (SRH) 27/627/23.2

Kane Williamson (above)and Rahul Tripathi have not opened in the last two years in IPL, which is why we’ve had to filter. Williamson, a winner four years ago, is a price at 11/4 for top SRH bat. Bet the market here. Tripathi is the same. The Kiwi is 25/1 for overall top spot but we’d be concerned that Sunrisers don’t qualify.

Last year’s winner was Ruturaj Gaikwad, the Chennai opener. Chennai, of course, won the title. Gaikwad is 12s for a repeat (a feat managed once). It’s not a great price considering he won with the lowest RPI yet. Devon Conway, yet to be tested in IPL, will be strongly fancied at 7/2 to take top CSK honous. He’s 22/1 overall.

Another value spot is KKR’s Venkatesh Iyer at 16s. He fares well on RPI and with his franchise light on openers, we’re confident he reprises his opening role. The 3/1 he tops for KKR is decent considering Shreyas Iyer and Aaron Finch are ahead of him in the betting. We actually have Sunil Narine opening with him for best balance. Check out the team guides here.

Bet top runscorer markets here

Top IPL runscorers by year (RPI)

Gaikwad 39.6
Rahul 47.8
Warner 57.6
Williamson 43.2
Warner 45.7
Kohli 60.8
Warner 40.1
Uthappa 41.2
M Hussey 43.1
Gayle 52.3
Gayle 50.6
Tendulkar 41.2
Hayden 48.5
S Marsh 56

Lockie and Arshdeep eye-catching

Finding a top bowler winner is trickier. Although the winning formula is clear. Ignore all spinners, like 12/1 Rashid Khan, and plump for a pacer who you can be sure will bowl at the death for cheap wickets.

How do we know who will bowl at the death? I hear you cry. Sorted it. Check the team-by-team list below.
The sticking point is that franchises may well mix up their options at the death, unlike their opening batters who get more chances.

RCB speedster Harshal Patel is the holder. He is Sportsbook’s second-favourite at 9/1 behind, of course, Mumbai’s Jasprit Bumrah at 7/1. Harshal has the edge on strike rate in the last two years.

Taking a wicket sub 16 is the way to go. And there are two strong candidates at tasty prices to consider. Lockie Ferguson is a menace and has little competition for the death slots at Gujarat. He is 20/1. Punjab’s Arshdeep is 12/1. He has a superior strike rate to team-mate Kagiso Rabada who is also 12s.

Sportsbook can split the pair for top Punjab wickets, however, so Arshdeep may be values at 2/1. Ferguson is 7/2 for top Gujarat with Mohammad Shami and Rashid both at 7/4.

Availability issues mean Jason Holder and Lungi Ngidi have to be swerved despite insane stats. Play both on the individual match wicket-taker markets.

IPL death bowlers by team/strike rate last two years

CSK Bravo (16.4)/Jordan (20.08)
DC Nortje (16.1)/Thakur (17.8)/Ngidi (12)
GL Shami(16.3)/Ferguson (15.7)
KKR Russell (13.06)/Cummins (22.5)/Mavi
LSG Avesh (16.25)/Holder (11.9)
MI Bumrah (14.3)/Unadkat (33.7)/Mills
PK Rabada (16.22)/Arshdeep (14.70)/Sandeep (26.6)
RCB Siraj (21.5)/Harshal (12.23)/Milne (28)
RR Boult (17.16)/Krishna (21)/Saini (49)
SRH Bhuv (37.4)/Tyagi (24)/Natarajan (23.6)

Bet top wicket-taker markets here

Why Kohli kills RCB on Cricket…Only Bettor

Another run fest on the cards

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Pakistan v Australia
Start time: Monday 21 March, 05:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Babar brilliant again

Pakistan looked to be heading to certain defeat in the second Test after being rolled for 147, having conceded 556. That they didn’t was down to brilliant rearguard, and return to form, from Babar Azam.

Babar made 196 and during a 125-run partnership with Mohammad Rizwan, who also notched a ton, an improbable victory target of 506 occasionally looked on. Abdullah Shafique had earlier made 96.

They then had a wobble and were clinging on at that end but if there is such a thing, momentum is with them. It will have felt like a win.

And all are present and correct with Faheem Ashraf returned to the XI and tuned up nicely. Hasan Ali may come under pressure for his place from Haris Rauf.

Probable XI: Imam, Shafique, Azhar, Babar, Fawad, Rizwan, Faheem, Hasan, Nauman, Sajid, Afridi

Hazlewood to return?

Australia will be more concerned than disappointed. How come Nathan Lyon was so ineffective? How come Mitchell Swepson had a debut to forget?

Lyon’s performance was most alarming. In the fourth innings on an Asian surface he really should have been more threatening. Four wickets don’t look too bad but the pressure seemed to get to him over 55 overs.

Swepson clearly seemed affected by the expectation. A spinner’s job is to bowl sides out on wearing surfaces. That’s the bottom line. Not chuck down long-hops and full-tosses. We expect Ashton Agar to play to offer more control.

Australia may look to shuffle a weary bowling attack. Josh Hazlewood could come in for Mictehll Starc, who deserves a rest.

Possible XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Carey, Green, Agar, Cummins, Lyon, Hazlewood

What happens next

Will a change of venue bring a more fair surface for the battle between bat and ball? What with the bore fest in the Caribbean, the two pitches we’ve seen in Rawalpindi and Karachi have made for poor adverts for the Test game.

It’s not good news. The last nine first-class matches have been draws at the Gaddafi Stadium. And they’ve been full of runs. There’s even been a triple century.

We would expect 400 to be a minimum require in both first-innings and there should be decent value available on the runs par lines. Bet the market here.

Easy trade strategy

Pakistan are 2.962/1, Australia 3.309/4 and the draw 2.727/4. The sensible money will be placed on the draw.
Given what we have seen so far in the series and the pitch report above, it would be a surprise if the stalemate didn’t trade odds-on at some point.

That means if we take the 2.727/4 now, wait for around 1.608/13 to lay, we can double our stake and ensure all results provide a profit. Alternatively you can lay for the same stake and ensure that there are no losses if Pakistan or Australia win. Bet the market here.

Tops value

It could pay to return to old faithful for profits on the side markets. On a probable road, there’s comfort in backing two of the best in the business – Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne for runs. The pair are 11/4 and 3/1 respectively for top Aussie bat in the first dig.

But when runs are set to flow it’s best to take all others out of the equation. It’s possible that a monster required here. So 5/1 and 6/1 for Smith and Marnus for tons in the first dig has appeals. Marnus has been in decent fettle but was run our for a duck in game two.

If you want less stress, Smith is 6/4 for a fifty and Labuschagne 17/10. We note Usman Khawaja, in fine form, at 11/2 for consecutive tons.

For Pakistan, Babar has been boosted to 3/1 for top bat. He is the same price as Smith for fifties/centuries. All first-innings remember. Bet Sportsbook markets here.

In-play angles after day three of West Indies v England

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Draw flipped

Prospects of a result after day three in Bridgetown are similar to the chances of slurping, sweating and swearing Barmy Army general making any sense.

England, as discussed in our preview, won’t be making much sense either after banging their heads against the flat, hard Kensington Oval surface for 117 overs. As predicted the draw is now solid odds-on and it is likely to get shorter.

The stalemate is 1.384/11 with England 4.2016/5 and West Indies 21.020/1. The home team could also shorten up with more easy runs. Not by much but enough for a basic trade into something like 17.016/1. Bet the match odds here.

Kraigg Brathwaite (109), the unflappabe Windies skipper, remains and Alzarri Joseph was sent in to protect Jason Holder. It is tempting to think that England are one wicket from a breakthrough until you remember that in 2019 Holder made a double against England to set up a thrashing.

Brathwaite’s century was not unexpected. Nor was Jermaine Blackwood’s. The pair have been a right old double-act of reliability in recent years. And Blackwood has had a habit of frustrating England.

In some ways, though, their 183-run partnership was a surprise. That was because early on there were signs that the pitch had changed in nature. There were dents being made and chunks flying off. Jack Leach got balls to turn and spit.

And when England managed two relatively quick wickets to leave West Indies at 100 for three, it wouldn’t have been entirely surprising to see the hosts struggle.

But this is not a vintage England attack. And one cannot help but wonder how better they would have fared had James Anderson and Stuart Broad been picked. It is hard to reckon they would have not fared slightly better.

Quite where that decision leaves England long-term is guess work. Rationally, it should be the end for the pair, premature or not. What would precisely be the point of hampering chances of a series win on the road only to bring them back for the summer?

Still, England don’t do rational. To the extent that fingers may not go in ears when the inevitable murmurings of discontent about Jack Leach’s performance in this Test begin.

If Leach is to silence the doubters he needs a big performance on day four. To be clear if you’re taking the 4.2016/5 about the tourists that’s what you’re betting on. That Leach can take a cluster to secure a big lead and flip the odds again.

Sportsbook pitch Brathwaite runs over/under at 143.5 at 10/11. https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/west-indies-v-england/31299345. On the exchange runs are available at 475 or more with 2.206/5 to back and 2.506/4 to lay. If we do see some bits and pieces come off the track after the roller work has worn off, we might consider the lay. Bet innings runs herehere.

Woakes no joke

England should bat again on day four. That means we have to consider the value for top runscorer.
On win rates, Zak Crawley could well be value with Sportsbook, who could pitch him at a potential 7/2.

However, if Leach suddenly finds turn again and those chunk of soil start flying from the seamers, another gamble on Chris Woakes at big numbers is not the worst bet.

Woakes has been poor with the ball, not that his record away from suggested he would be anything but. He has looked good with the willow, though, and has been consistently chipping in with scores. Bet Sportsbook markets herehere.

Second innings top bat wins/matches
Root 6/30
Stokes 4/23
Crawley 4/15
Woakes 3/14
Lawrence 1/9